Tag: missile defense

  • Hypersonic Weapons in 2026: Who Has Them and Do They Actually Work?

    The United States has spent over $15 billion on hypersonic weapons development across the last three fiscal years. The Pentagon‘s FY2026 budget requests another $3.9 billion. And as of March 2026, the United States has not fielded a single operational hypersonic weapon. Russia claims to have several. China has tested at least 20 times more hypersonic missiles than the U.S. has. A former Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering testified to Congress that the United States does not “have systems which can hold [China and Russia] at risk in a corresponding manner, and we don’t have defenses against [their] systems.”

    That quote is from 2023. The situation in 2026 is marginally better and structurally the same.

    What hypersonic actually means

    The term gets thrown around loosely enough that it’s worth nailing down. A hypersonic weapon travels at Mach 5 or above—five times the speed of sound, roughly 6,200 kilometers per hour at sea level. But speed alone isn’t the point. Conventional ballistic missiles reach hypersonic velocities during reentry. What distinguishes hypersonic weapons is that they combine extreme speed with maneuverability—the ability to change course during flight, making their trajectory unpredictable and interception extraordinarily difficult.

    Two types dominate the current development landscape. Hypersonic glide vehicles are launched on a ballistic trajectory by a rocket booster, then separate and glide through the upper atmosphere at hypersonic speeds, maneuvering toward their target along a flatter, lower path than a traditional ballistic missile. This depressed trajectory reduces the detection window for radar systems and complicates interception because the glide vehicle can change direction in ways a ballistic warhead can’t. Hypersonic cruise missiles are powered throughout their flight by air-breathing engines—scramjets—that sustain hypersonic speeds within the atmosphere. They fly lower than glide vehicles, further reducing detection time, but the engineering challenge of a scramjet engine that operates reliably at Mach 5-plus is formidable.

    The strategic concern is straightforward: a weapon that moves at Mach 5 or faster while maneuvering unpredictably compresses decision-making time for the target country to minutes or less, and existing missile defense systems—designed to intercept projectiles on predictable ballistic trajectories—can’t reliably track or engage it.

    Russia: Claims and combat use

    Russia has been the most aggressive in deploying claimed hypersonic capability. The Kinzhal (meaning “dagger”), an air-launched ballistic missile reportedly capable of Mach 10, has been used operationally in Ukraine since March 2022. The Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, which Russia claims can reach Mach 27 and maneuver to evade any missile defense system, was declared operational in December 2019, deployed with the Strategic Rocket Forces on modified SS-19 Stiletto ICBMs. In August 2025, President Putin announced that the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile had entered production and would be deployed in Belarus.

    The caveat on Russian claims is that independent verification is limited. Russia has a history of announcing capabilities in advance of demonstrated performance, and the operational record of Russian advanced weapons in Ukraine has been mixed. Kinzhal has been intercepted by Ukraine’s Patriot missile defense systems on at least two confirmed occasions, which either means the Patriot is more capable against hypersonic targets than expected or the Kinzhal is less capable than advertised—or both. The Avangard has been tested only twice, with one success and one failure. Production quantities for all Russian hypersonic systems are believed to be very small, constrained by sanctions, manufacturing capacity, and component shortages.

    China: The scale advantage

    China has conducted the most extensive hypersonic testing program of any country—up to 20 times as many tests as the United States, according to Congressional Research Service reporting. In late September 2025, China conducted a hypersonic ICBM test featuring boost-glide technology and a depressed trajectory, which analysts interpreted as a major leap in flight-profile sophistication.

    China has also unveiled multiple operational or near-operational hypersonic systems: the YJ-17, an anti-ship aeroballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle warhead; the YJ-19, a scramjet-powered hypersonic cruise missile; and the CJ-1000, a hypersonic cruise missile designed to target systems nodes across land, sea, and air. China’s DF-17 medium-range ballistic missile, which carries a hypersonic glide vehicle, has been deployed since 2020 and is specifically designed to threaten carrier strike groups and military installations across the western Pacific.

    The difference between the Chinese and American approaches is structural, not just technical. Chinese and Russian hypersonic weapons are designed for nuclear or dual-capable use, which means they can afford to be less accurate—a nuclear warhead doesn’t need to hit a specific building. American hypersonic weapons are being designed exclusively for conventional warheads, which means they require far greater precision. As the CRS report notes, nuclear-armed systems can be 10 to 100 times less accurate than their conventional equivalents. The U.S. has chosen the harder engineering problem.

    The United States: Expensive, capable, and not yet fielded

    The U.S. has three primary hypersonic weapons programs in development. The Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike pairs a common hypersonic glide body with a booster system, intended for deployment on Zumwalt-class destroyers (now delayed to 2027) and eventually Virginia-class submarines and Burke-class destroyers. The Army’s Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon—Dark Eagle—is a road-mobile, trailer-launched system with an estimated range of 3,500 kilometers. In December 2025, Lt. Gen. Francisco Lozano disclosed that Dark Eagle could strike mainland China from Guam, Moscow from the United Kingdom, or Tehran from Qatar. One battery is stationed at Fort Lewis, Washington. The Air Force’s Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, a scramjet-powered system, is the service’s primary focus after the cancellation of the ARRW program following multiple test failures.

    The U.S. conducted successful end-to-end tests of the common glide body in June and December 2024 and April 2025—genuine milestones after the embarrassing 2022 test failure and the 2023 cancellation due to a battery issue. But operational deployment remains years away, and CRS analysis states the U.S. is unlikely to field an operational hypersonic system before FY2027.

    The cost problem may be more consequential than the timeline problem. Current U.S. hypersonic missiles cost between $15 million and $41 million per round, depending on the system. Production capacity is one to two missiles per month. An Atlantic Council task force, co-chaired by former Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James and former Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy, published a report in late 2025 arguing that the U.S. defense industrial base is structurally incapable of producing hypersonic weapons affordably or at scale. Former Pentagon hypersonics director Michael White said the U.S. has “very capable” systems but at “unsustainable cost levels” and urged a “dramatic shift” toward commercial manufacturing models. In February 2026, Ursa Major debuted the HAVOC missile system—a medium-range hypersonic weapon explicitly designed for affordability and mass production, including the ability to be launched from fighter aircraft, ground systems, and space.

    The defense problem

    Building a weapon that existing defenses can’t stop is one challenge. Building a defense against that weapon is arguably harder. The Pentagon is conceptualizing a multi-layered intercept architecture called “Golden Dome,” combining space-based sensors, midcourse interceptors, high-altitude systems, and terminal-phase defenses. The U.S. has procured upgraded AN/TPY-2 radars with gallium nitride arrays for hypersonic threat detection. The Missile Defense Agency requested $200.6 million for hypersonic defense in FY2026.

    The fundamental physics problem: intercepting a maneuvering object at Mach 5-plus requires the interceptor to be faster and more agile than the target, or to predict its trajectory accurately enough to position the interceptor in its path. Hypersonic glide vehicles are specifically designed to make trajectory prediction impossible. The interception window is measured in seconds. The sensor coverage required to track a low-flying, maneuvering target across thousands of kilometers doesn’t exist in any deployed system. Patriot’s successful intercepts of Kinzhal suggest the problem isn’t completely unsolvable, but Kinzhal may be the least sophisticated of the deployed hypersonic threats.

    The arms control vacuum

    The New START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia, which limited strategic nuclear weapons, expired in February 2026 without renewal. The treaty didn’t explicitly cover hypersonic glide vehicles or cruise missiles that fly on a non-ballistic trajectory for more than half their flight. No international agreement restricts the development, testing, or deployment of hypersonic weapons. North Korea, India (developing BrahMos II with Russia, targeting Mach 7), Japan (the HVGP, expected in service by 2026), France, Australia, and Iran are all pursuing hypersonic programs at various stages of maturity.

    The proliferation trajectory mirrors what happened with ballistic missiles in the mid-20th century and drones in the 2010s: a technology initially limited to a few major powers diffuses to regional actors within a decade, and the window for arms control closes before anyone seriously tries to open it. With no treaty framework, no verification mechanisms, and no diplomatic momentum toward either, the hypersonic arms race in 2026 is entirely unregulated and accelerating.

    We cover hypersonic weapons alongside directed energy, autonomous systems, electronic warfare, and the full landscape of emerging military technology across 24 lectures in our Battlefields of the Future course—including why the most expensive weapons in the U.S. arsenal might be the ones it can least afford to use.

  • Directed Energy Weapons Explained: Lasers, Microwaves, and the Future of Missile Defense

    For roughly forty years, military laser weapons have been perpetually five years away. Ronald Reagan announced the Strategic Defense Initiative in 1983—popularly known as Star Wars—and promised a constellation of space-based lasers that would zap Soviet ICBMs mid-flight like something out of a movie that, at the time, hadn’t even finished its original trilogy. The orbital lasers never materialized. The Soviet Union collapsed on its own. And directed energy weapons settled into a comfortable holding pattern as the technology that was always about to be revolutionary but never quite ready for Tuesday.

    That changed. Not in the dramatic, press-conference way. In the boring way—which, if you’ve been paying attention, is how all the important stuff actually happens. As of March 2026, the U.S. Navy has laser-equipped destroyers deployed to active combat zones. Israel has fielded what it calls the first operational ground-based laser defense system. Australia is building autonomous laser turrets that can destroy 200 drones on a single battery charge. The Pentagon just announced it wants directed energy weapons fielded at scale within 36 months. And the entire push is being driven not by some theoretical breakthrough in physics but by a brutally simple math problem: a $3 million Patriot interceptor missile is an absurd thing to fire at a $30,000 Iranian drone, and you’re going to run out of missiles before they run out of drones.

    That cost asymmetry is the whole story. Everything else is engineering.

    What directed energy actually means

    A directed energy weapon uses concentrated electromagnetic energy—rather than a physical projectile—to damage, disable, or destroy a target. The two categories that matter militarily right now are high-energy lasers (HEL) and high-powered microwaves (HPM). Particle beam weapons exist in theory and in certain classified research programs, but they’re not close to deployment, so we’ll leave them in the filing cabinet.

    High-energy lasers work by focusing a beam of coherent light on a target and holding it there long enough to transfer sufficient thermal energy to cause structural failure. That’s the clinical version. The practical version: you point an extremely powerful beam of light at a drone, the beam heats the surface material until something critical—a motor, a wing spar, an electronics housing, a fuel line—melts, burns through, or otherwise ceases to function, and the drone falls out of the sky. The key phrase is “holding it there long enough,” because unlike what the movies suggest, a laser weapon doesn’t vaporize things on contact. It’s more like using a magnifying glass on an ant, except the magnifying glass costs $30 million and the ant is traveling at 200 miles per hour.

    High-powered microwave weapons take a different approach. Instead of heating a small spot to destruction, they emit a broad cone of electromagnetic energy that fries the electronics inside a target. No need to melt through a fuselage—just overwhelm the circuit boards, the flight controller, the GPS receiver. The drone doesn’t explode; it just stops being a drone and becomes debris. The advantage: you can hit multiple targets simultaneously if they’re within the emission cone. The disadvantage: the effective range is shorter than lasers, the physics of directed microwave propagation are less forgiving, and the technology is less mature.

    What’s actually been deployed

    The U.S. Navy has the most operational experience. The AN/SEQ-3 Laser Weapon System (LaWS) was tested aboard the USS Ponce in the Persian Gulf starting in 2014—a 30-kilowatt system that successfully engaged small boats, drones, and other targets. That was the proof of concept. Since then, the Navy has moved to ODIN (Optical Dazzling Interdictor, Navy), a soft-kill laser system that’s been installed on multiple Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. ODIN doesn’t destroy targets—it blinds or dazzles the sensors and optics on incoming drones and missiles, degrading their ability to navigate or track. In February 2026, an ODIN-equipped destroyer was photographed launching Tomahawk missiles during Operation Epic Fury—the U.S. military campaign against Iranian targets—marking what appears to be the first deployment of a shipborne laser system in a major combat operation against a state adversary.

    The Navy’s next step is HELIOS (High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-dazzler and Surveillance), a 60-kilowatt system from Lockheed Martin designed to actually destroy targets rather than just blind them. Beyond that, the SONGBOW program is developing what could become the first 400-kilowatt shipboard laser, combining multiple 50-kilowatt industrial laser units into a single directed beam capable of engaging drone swarms, cruise missiles, and fast-moving threats at considerable range. The Navy’s stated ambition—and I’m quoting senior leadership here—is “a laser on every ship.” Whether that ambition survives contact with procurement budgets and manufacturing constraints is a separate question.

    Israel deployed Iron Beam in 2025, a ground-based laser system designed to complement the Iron Dome missile defense system by handling the lower end of the threat spectrum—drones, rockets, and mortars that Iron Dome currently intercepts with missiles costing tens of thousands of dollars each. The logic is identical to the Navy’s: use the laser for the cheap threats, save the kinetic interceptors for the expensive ones. Iron Beam reportedly can destroy a target in seconds, and the cost per engagement is, by missile defense standards, effectively negligible—a few dollars’ worth of electricity versus a $50,000 Tamir interceptor.

    The U.S. Army has been prototyping aggressively. The Directed Energy Maneuver-Short Range Air Defense system (DE M-SHORAD) mounts a 50-kilowatt laser on a Stryker armored vehicle, and four units have been deployed operationally. The Army has also tested systems ranging from 10-kilowatt palletized units for fixed sites to 300-kilowatt systems designed to engage larger threats like cruise missiles and artillery rockets. Of the 17 directed energy prototypes the Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office has developed, 11 have been deployed. The service is now pursuing an Enduring High Energy Laser program—its first program of record for laser weapons, meaning the first one that’s not just a prototype or experiment but an actual acquisition program intended to produce systems at scale.

    Australia’s EOS Defense introduced Apollo, a laser system targeting around 150 kilowatts that can provide 360-degree coverage and destroy up to 200 drones on a single battery charge. At a time when everyone is talking about counter-drone capabilities in the abstract, EOS is quoting a per-shot cost that makes conventional ammunition look like a luxury good.

    Why “infinite magazine” is more complicated than it sounds

    The sales pitch for directed energy weapons always includes some version of “unlimited shots.” And it’s true that a laser doesn’t consume physical ammunition—there’s no magazine to empty, no missile to reload, no shell casing to eject. But “unlimited” has asterisks, and those asterisks are where the engineering actually gets difficult.

    Power generation is the first constraint. A 50-kilowatt laser needs roughly 150 kilowatts of electrical input power (lasers are not 100% efficient—current military solid-state lasers operate at roughly 30-40% wall-plug efficiency). A 300-kilowatt laser needs close to a megawatt. Generating that kind of power on a Navy destroyer is one thing—the ship has gas turbines producing tens of megawatts. Generating it on a Stryker armored vehicle or a Joint Light Tactical Vehicle is a completely different engineering problem. The vehicle’s power plant wasn’t designed to run a megawatt-class weapon while also driving, running communications, and keeping the AC on. This is the size, weight, and power problem—SWaP in Pentagon jargon—and it constrains how powerful a laser you can put on which platform.

    Thermal management is the second constraint and arguably the harder one. That 60-70% of input energy that doesn’t become laser light becomes heat. A 300-kilowatt laser firing sustained bursts generates enough waste heat that you need an industrial cooling system to keep the optics and gain medium from degrading. On a ship, you can dump heat into seawater. On a ground vehicle in a desert, your options are more limited. The Army has found that the optics on its laser prototypes are one of the highest-failure-rate components—not because the optics are bad, but because thermal cycling degrades precision surfaces over operational use in field conditions.

    Atmospheric effects are the third constraint. Lasers travel at the speed of light, which sounds unbeatable until you remember that the light has to travel through atmosphere. Rain, fog, dust, smoke, and humidity all scatter and absorb the beam, reducing the energy that actually reaches the target. A 50-kilowatt laser in clear desert air at 2 kilometers performs very differently from the same laser in North Atlantic fog at 5 kilometers. Microwaves are less affected by weather but more affected by range—the beam spreads, and the energy density drops with distance.

    This is why nobody serious is claiming that directed energy replaces conventional weapons. The operational concept is layered defense: lasers and microwaves handle the high-volume, low-cost threat layer—drone swarms, rockets, mortars, loitering munitions—while conventional missiles handle the high-end threats that require a kinetic kill at long range. The laser is the cheaper, faster, deeper-magazine first line. The Patriot battery is still there. It just doesn’t have to waste a $3 million interceptor on something a $10 beam of light can handle.

    Where this goes next

    The $250 million directed energy R&D funding in the 2025 reconciliation bill, the Army-Navy joint laser program under Trump’s “Golden Dome for America” missile shield concept, the Pentagon’s stated 36-month fielding timeline—all of this points in the same direction. The institutional commitment is real. The technology is mature enough to be useful against today’s primary threat—small drones—and the manufacturing base is what’s lagging.

    That manufacturing base problem is real and worth taking seriously. The companies building these systems—Lockheed Martin, Raytheon (now RTX), BlueHalo (now part of AeroVironment), nLight, EOS—have prototype and low-rate production capabilities, not assembly lines. EOS’s new Singapore hub plans to produce five to ten systems per year. That’s artisanal output for a capability the Pentagon wants on every ship and every forward-deployed ground unit. Scaling from “onesies and twosies” (the Army’s actual phrase) to hundreds of units requires a manufacturing ramp that hasn’t started yet. And—because everything connects to everything—the advanced optics and laser components in these systems require rare earth elements and specialty materials with the same supply chain vulnerabilities we keep running into.

    The DOD roadmap calls for scaling from current 150-kilowatt-class systems to 500 kilowatts by 2030 with reduced size and weight, and eventually to megawatt-class systems. If those numbers hold, you’re looking at weapons that can engage not just drones and rockets but cruise missiles, ballistic missile warheads, and possibly aircraft at tactically significant ranges. That’s when directed energy stops being a complement to missile defense and starts being the missile defense.

    But that’s a big “if,” and the history of directed energy programs is littered with timelines that didn’t survive contact with physics, budgets, or the bureaucratic reality of defense procurement. The technology works. It’s deployed. It’s killing drones in active combat zones right now. The question is whether it can scale fast enough and far enough to matter against the volume of threats that modern warfare is producing—and whether the manufacturing base, the power systems, and the thermal management can keep pace with the ambition.

    We cover directed energy weapons—alongside drones, electronic warfare, autonomous systems, and every other technology reshaping how wars are fought—across 36 lectures in our Battlefields of the Future course. The full kill chain, the full technology stack, the full timeline from 2025 to 2125.